Chadfield,
V. and Pautasso, M. 2011.
Phytophthora ramorum in
England and Wales: which environmental variables predict county disease
incidence? Forest Pathology. DOI: 10.1111/j.1439-0329.2011.
00735.x.
Abstract:
Phytophthora ramorum is the oomycete pathogen
responsible for Sudden Oak Death on the West Coast of the USA and Sudden
Larch Death in the British Isles. It also causes twig dieback and leaf
blight on a series of ornamental hosts (e.g.
Rhododendron,
Viburnum,
Pieris and
Camellia) commonly grown in plant
nurseries, traded by garden centers and cultivated in public and
private gardens. The role of the plant trade in the dispersal of
P.
ramorum has been well documented, but there is a need for
regional analyses of which environmental variables can predict disease
expression in the trade and in the wild, so as to be able to better
predict the further development of this worldwide plant health issue.
In this study, we analyze data on the incidence of
P. ramorum
(2002–2009, thus before the reports in Japanese larch plantations) in
counties in England and Wales as a function of environmental variables
such as temperature and rainfall, controlling for confounding factors
such as county area, human population and spatial autocorrelation. While
P. ramorum county incidence in nurseries and retail centers
was positively related to county area and human population density,
county incidence in gardens and the wild did not show such correlations,
declined significantly towards the East and was positively correlated
with disease incidence in the trade. The latter finding, although not
conclusively proving causation, suggests a role of the trade in the
dispersal of this pathogen across English and Welsh landscapes. Combined
together,
P. ramorum county incidence in the trade and in the
semi-natural environment increased with increasing precipitation and
with declining latitude. This study shows the importance of
environmental variables in shaping regional plant epidemics, but also
yields results that are suggestive of a role of people in spreading
plant diseases across entire countries.